Economists downgrade Q1 US GDP estimates again

by The Daily Lede


Economists downgrade Q1 US GDP estimates again

Five months ago, economists were forecasting the US would grow at a 4% pace in the first quarter. Now, after today’s March trade balance numbers we’ve had another wave of lower estimates, some of them deeply into negative territory. Goldman Sachs now sees Q1 growth at -0.6% from 0.3% Barclays sees a 0.2% contraction from -0.1%. Deutsche Bank’s forecast is -0.4% and economist Joe Lavorgna said trade balance will trim another tenth First Trust now sees -0.3% from -0.2% Morgan Stanley now sees -0.5% Estimates for the second quarter have moved up to about 3.5% from 3.0% but that means, at best, a growth pace of 1.6% in the first half of the year.

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